Beyond 911 by Chappell Lawson & Alan Bersin & Juliette Kayyem

Author:Chappell Lawson & Alan Bersin & Juliette Kayyem [LAWSON, CHAPPELL]
Language: eng
Format: epub
ISBN: 9780262361330
Publisher: MIT Press

Emergency managers typically assess hazard risk based on the historical record, but prior experience is no longer a sufficient predictor of future conditions. Climate change is challenging the traditional, history-based approach to risk assessments, forcing emergency managers to find new ways to accommodate greater uncertainty in decision-making processes.20

More than half of the U.S. population lives in coastal areas. As Superstorm Sandy clearly demonstrated, large-scale disasters in densely populated coastal cities present a new set of complex challenges. The insured value of property along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts has also risen, from $7.2 trillion to $10.6 trillion during 2004–2012.21 This is a recipe for disasters that cost more money and threaten more lives.

Diminishing federal budget resources, reductions in annual grant funding, and competing budgetary pressures at the federal, state, and local government levels have negatively impacted the disaster preparedness and response capabilities and capacities in many jurisdictions. At the federal level, and particularly from members of Congress, there have been consistent proposals to reduce federal expenditures associated with disasters.22 At the same time, there has been enormous resistance from state and local governments against proposals to shift the financial burden for disasters down to state and municipal governments. In an era of decreased government resources, the emergency management community cannot hope to see significant increases in their budgets and resources in the coming years.

Based on the trends described above, the future holds more catastrophic incidents in store for the nation. In addition, a variety of other factors will serve to increase the complexity of managing emergencies, including the proliferation of social media and real-time media coverage of events; increased operational interdependencies within and across critical infrastructure sectors, including power, water, and transportation; and the existence of novel threats that have unclear consequences or untested response strategies, such as attacks on the cyber infrastructure or chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) terrorism. In summary, the future promises more, not fewer, challenges for the homeland security and emergency management communities.

What Should We Do?

Emergency management agencies at all levels of government must undertake a number of initiatives to enhance the nation’s ability to prepare for, respond to, recover from, and mitigate against future vulnerabilities. I offer three straightforward but critical recommendations to build the nation’s preparedness posture and to assure continued improvement in the nation’s emergency management system.

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